Mortgage rate averages are hovering near yearslong lows, but there are signs of uncertainty in the market.

As of Thursday, the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.09%. It’s slightly higher than a week earlier, but it’s still down considerably from the same time a year earlier and one of the lowest averages in the past few years.

The 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage also increased slightly, averaging 5.44% in the week ended Thursday.

With the economy improving and the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage nearly a percentage point lower than last year, more homebuyers are entering the market,” Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, said in a statement Thursday.

On a daily basis, mortgage rates have moved even higher, though it’s important to note that daily measures are typically more volatile than weekly averages.

As of Thursday afternoon, the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was at 6.19%, according to Mortgage News Daily. That’s slightly lower than a day earlier but nearing the highest daily rate in about a month.

The 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage was flat, sitting at 5.76%.

Geopolitical uncertainty puts upward pressure on rates

For the past two or so weeks, mortgage markets have been digesting a slew of policy proposals from the federal government aimed at making housing more affordable in the United States. The result: lower mortgage rates.

Without a clear outline for those proposals, though — in particular, President Donald Trump’s announcement that he’s initiating a mortgage bond-buying spree valued at $200 billion — markets are turning their attention elsewhere. That’s putting upward pressure back on mortgage rates.

This week, world leaders are gathered in Davos, Switzerland, for the World Economic Forum. There, Trump has already issued an executive order targeting institutional investors in the housing market.

More than that, though, the president has been hinting at a deal that would have the United States taking at least some stake in Greenland. The details are rapidly changing, so the specifics of any deal are not yet clear.

What does that mean for the mortgage market?

Well, if there’s one thing investors don’t like, it’s uncertainty. That said, mortgage rates may move higher — at least on a daily basis — as markets await further clarity on the geopolitical landscape and the president’s mortgage bond-buying plan.

Mortgage and refinance demand is surging

Even so, mortgage rates are still significantly lower than they were this time last year. That’s fueled a surge in borrower activity at the start of 2026.

Mortgage applications increased 14.1% in the week ended Jan. 16 compared with a week earlier, according to data the Mortgage Bankers Association released on Wednesday. That was the second consecutive week of double-digit growth in the association’s index.

A 20% surge in refinancing fueled it as borrowers moved to take advantage of lower mortgage rates.

That jump in activity comes as the housing market is preparing for the spring buying season — typically the busiest time of the year for residential real estate — a signal that activity could pick up.

“With the spring homebuying season approaching, lower mortgage rates would be a welcome development for households looking to buy a home,” Bob Broeksmit, CEO and president of the MBA, said in a statement Thursday.